So what is keeping this from happening? Hubris for one. Every Value Added Services executive in the industry thinks they know best. And they will keep thinking this as ARPU declines quarter over quarter while the sub-category of smartphones and data ready phones actually posts better year on year sales numbers then the rest of the cell phone market. Do I have the perfect answer? No. But would I localize industry best practices on value added services and give it a shot. Absolutely. Unfortunately a portal based and game download approach is the most you will find. “Come to us” the SP’s seem to be saying. While they should be figuring out ways to go to the customer virally.
Cost is an issue. Not the cost of the network which would be a deal breaker if you tried this as a model for PC gamers to log onto your server farm. The SP’s have the network. But the cost to the end user. Data is getting cheaper but is still not cheap enough. Someone addicted will spend five hundred to a thousand hours online a year on the mobile web. A typical user maybe a hundred to a hundred fifty hours. Someone needs to figure out a way to bring the cost down. Either by providing it nearly at cost and using an advertising model to supplement income or by using a casual gaming model in which you log in a few times a day for five to fifteen minutes and do what you gotta do. Casual gaming giants like Zynga and Playfish use this approach successfully in franchises like Farmville, Mafia wars etc. Mobile gaming will not bring someone on for hours at a time. It’s just not hardwired that way from an experience perspective. And won’t be till everyone has an Apple internet tablet. My opinion has always been that you need at least ten inches of screen to spend a lot of time plugged in. What can work is level based play. You download a level and when you finish it you must login to download the next level free. Or you can only defeat the boss monster while logged in.
Do not worry about the graphics. Ask any gamer and they will tell you they will take game play over looks any day. Game play needs to have a social element that keeps players hooked. Either by using player created content or by creating a competitive ladder. Location based gaming is definitely something that plays to the SP networks’ strength.
Here is what I recommend:
1. Create a startup for this gaming initiative within a service provider whose head is at most two levels below the CEO. This is important as this will need to cut across billing, Values Added Services, Strategy, Finance and IT. And these are silos which require on boarding. Not getting this collaboration is often the reason why Managed Services fail but that’s a story for another day.
2. Use an alliance model to bring the right partner or franchisee on board. Make sure they will allow you to localize content or do not bother with them. Have you heard of gbanga? I thought not. Lots of options out there. Half of them probably in Korea that leads mobile and broadband innovation in entertainment.
3. Make it simple. Game play, logging in should be simple and quick. If you need someone to register you have lost them.
4. Be bold. Do not be afraid to look at the massive potential of this market and the talent available. License the Exit Games platform and use local gaming development and talent to create something yourself if needed. I know five people who can do this in a room.
A road as virgin is bound to be riddled with adversity. But a fight for survival demands that Service Provider’s wake up and be bold. The cycle that follows telecom de-regulation is fairly predictable. New players emerge with a go-to market based around coverage. Once teledensity plateaus a bloody price war emerges. Value Added Services are deemed a savior and almost inevitably fail to deliver on the massive expectation placed upon them. Providers get acquired or go bankrupt. There are two or three left standing who try to rebuild in a market they themselves have spoiled on price and margins. My fear is that the networks will look at 3G as the ARPU savior while the answer is reinventing 2.5G.
Buck the trend. Go gaming.
- Habib “Noori Nath” Khan
« hide it
It should be a match made in heaven: Service providers with some of the most sophisticated, intelligent and ready networks in the world on one hand. And on the other hand a country like Pakistan with unlimited potential for cheap entertainment and a majority population less then thirty years of age. And to bind these two in holy matrimony the genre of Massively Multiplayer online games.
