There are Playstation 3’s sitting on retail shelves their cell processors gathering dust while Nintendo’s Wii’s are harder to find then true broadband connections in Pakistan. Xbox 360 is over a hundred titles and unlike those of the PSP a lot of them are actually playable. One PS3 is sold for every three Wii’s in Japan, formerly a market dominated by Sony. Japan is the second largest gaming market in the world after the US and X Box has never existed there and the 360 follows this discredited path with aplomb. More X Box Japan heads have been moved or fired then Prime Minister’s in PK-land.
Meanwhile Xbox 360 is reeling from a USD 1B charge (That’s one BILLION or 840 Million more then the population of Pk-land and 1 Billion less then the unofficial wealth of the guy who owns all the hoardings in Karachi) for extended warranties against manufacturing defects. Wii actually makes its intuitive gaming demigods a fifty dollar profit for every unit it sells. Meanwhile the 360 is piling the losses on its millions of units so far and the PS3 just cut its price a 100 dollars on a console already losing money so far.
With costs to develop a blockbuster exceeding 30 million dollars for PS3 developers are increasingly giving precious gaming talent over to Wii projects which costs a third to make and thus are less risky. As Wii consoles keep selling at this pace they will take even more resources from these developers. No one likes to develop for a small install base. That makes about as much sense as eating Pizza with tomato ketchup which I hope we all can agree is simply not done if you have studied more then ten grades. The X Box chief has just left. Sony’s godfather has also been offered like a shish kebab to shareholders demanding blood for the lacklustre PS3 launch and because he ruled like a dictator, in true dictator style he has left a serious vacuum of leadership (Egyptians please take note). While the Nintendo boss is the toast of business circles across the globe. Hell Nintendo’s Wii even made it to FORTUNE’s cover usually reserved for portraits of titans of European or US business.
Is this war over even before its begun? Are Sony and X Box destined to duke it out for second place? Not so fast.There are 118 Million PS2’s sold till date. The Playstation brand is like Toyota, BMW, Volkwagen and Mercedes rolled into one. That install bae of PS2 will also keep the developers in line and afford Sony the breathing room to get top notch games out with the risk being passed onto the developers. The death of the PS3 over its price is also highly exaggerated. Within two years when developers have harnessed the stunning power of the cell processor and there are enough digital TV’s worldwide to appreciate it and there are over a hundred solid titles for the PS3 including its hard hitting franchises DMC, MGS, God of War etc. the PS3 will be a must buy for a lot of people. It’s the lack of great games that is hurting Sony PS3 more then its price. And with the price down a hundred bucks it puts it within range of the 360 Elite Microsoft’s high end system.The 360 meanwhile has stolen a step up on the future. Its millions of LIVE members are one of the most lucrative online audience in the world. Just the thought of being able to get these people’s attention has an advertiser salivating like Immigration officers stamping Angelina Jolie’s passport. It does have first movers advantage over the PS3. And it does have billions of its parent company’s money to back it up. And it does have Halo 3.I also predict the “evangelism” effect. The Wii is rocking because of its innovation and price point. It has managed to reinvent the rules by bringing in new consumers instead of fighting over the same old ones. It also has the pre teen market solidly in its grasp. When the new consumers figure out they actually like gaming and can incorporate it into their lifestyle a significant percentage will be hooked enough to pick up another console. Guess who benefits then? And when the pre teens grow up and are fed the healthy western diet of violence, sex language and nudity they will also feed their gaming addiction by migrating to one of the “serious” consoles. It may take time but Nintendo has done everyone associated with gaming a favor.So who will win? Its hard to say. Could be everyone wins. Could be that Online play decides this next war. Could be that user generated content transforms a console’s fortune. Could be that one of the consoles graduates beyond games into an entertainment center for the family. Could be that one online game exclusive like World of Warcraft shifts an entire generation to a certain console. Could be that the PS3’s Blu Ray grows into a serious decision enabler. Could be that Xbox 360 figures out how to grow out of its hardcore gamer in Europe and US demographic. Could be that Ninendo sells 200 million units by focusing on emerging markets like India, China and South America to really shut me up.What is for sure is that the serious back breaking and extremely hard work of churning out great games is still as important as ever. And the only person who wins no matter which console loses is us. Ciched ending. But you know you love it!
- Habib “Noori Nath” Khan
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I am generally fascinated by “the secret sauce” that few studios understand of creating Intellectual Property or IP. How to breakthrough the clutter of creativity and make something that really resonates and breaks out into the mass cultural consciousness. Bungie did that with Halo, Blizzard do it with everything they touch! This is a big deal. That is why Microsoft boughtthe Halo IP. It could not create it despite having billions. Secret sauce baby. Only someone else’s mama knows how to make it.Halo 3 what we expected it to do. It broke the record for any entertainment launch in history. Yes boys and girls it brought more in its first day then Return of the Sith on its launch.At stake are billions of dollars from merchandise deals, additional games and additional media content. What Halo needs to do in order to become the next Star Wars is to become a franchise that can bring money in just by the mention of its name. I think the first test will be Halo Wars. While you are staying in the field of games you are moving from the FPS genre to RTS. It’s a big move in a field with the memory of giants like Westwood still casting a pall on it and with current kings Blizzard etc. dominating. This is a good test to see if Halo can become a franchise. Runaway success for Halo Wars means that Halo has juice as a franchise.
